“There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen,” as Lenin once remarked.
We are living through some of those eventful geopolitical weeks right now.
Canada recently said it would meet NATO’s defence spending target of two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, well ahead of previous plans. G7 leaders in Alberta last week agreed on a Critical Minerals Action Plan. Canadian and European Union leaders just signed a new defence cooperation pact. Bill C-5 will accelerate initiatives the feds deem to be “National Interest Projects.” And this week, Canada and its NATO allies committed to an even higher defence spending target of 3.5 per cent of GDP, plus another 1.5 per cent for defense-related infrastructure and cyber defences.
The defence-related infrastructure commitment is important here in the North, since it could include so-called “dual-use” facilities such as upgraded ports and roads that also support civilian needs.
The geopolitical pressures driving all of this can seem distant for us here in the Yukon.
But they are deadly serious. It is sobering to talk to government officials, investors or business people in the countries bordering Russia, such as Finland or Latvia. For example, there are regular public reports of state-sponsored cyber attacks, airline GPS systems being jammed, undersea fibre-optic cables being cut and more.
Finland is in the process, for example, of withdrawing from the international landmine treaty that Canada helped negotiate in happier times. You know that if such a responsible and peace-loving country as Finland is doing this, the situation must be grave. Which it is, if you live beside a country whose tanks have rolled across borders from Ukraine to Georgia.
Most Yukoners don’t think about NATO much. But remember that Canada via NATO is allied to Finland as well as Sweden, Norway, Poland, Latvia and the other Baltic States. We have committed to consider attacks on them as attacks on Canada. There are 2,000 Canadian troops stationed in Latvia right now.
So what does all this mean for the Yukon?
The Yukon’s geography means that it is unlikely major military bases will be built here. The big jet fighter base at Fairbanks is better situated to patrol the Bering Strait and North Slope. When Canada ramps up its northern air bases, it will expand the small facility at Inuvik before building much in the Yukon. As for the navy, we don’t have an Arctic port. Investment will go to Tuktoyaktuk and possibly Grays Bay further east on the Nunavut coast. As for missile defence, the United States already has interceptors at Fort Greely near Fairbanks. The next generation of Arctic radar stations may need a location on the Yukon coast, but it would have few personnel and be served from Inuvik.
This means ours is likely to be a supporting role, which highlights that dual-use infrastructure category.
In fact, some of our recent infrastructure projects serve the national interest well. Think of the upgraded Whitehorse airport runway and the newly opened fibre-optic cable up the Dempster to Inuvik’s satellite and defence facilities.
What could be next? Major upgrades to the Dempster Highway are a possible National Interest Project. Some minor upgrades to the roadway have already been announced, but the Dempster closes twice per year between ice-bridge and ferry seasons. Significantly improving the highway and building bridges over the Peel and Mackenzie rivers would make Canada’s defence assets in Inuvik that much easier and cheaper to supply.
However, the cost of bridges over the Mackenzie and Peel would be enormous. Think of the costly new Teslin bridge, but put it much farther north on permafrost with longer spans. Ottawa will need to think through if the benefits of shoulder season traffic are worth the possible half-a-billion or more needed for a major Dempster upgrade.
The BC-Yukon grid connection has been suggested as a Yukon National Interest Project. Similar to the Dempster upgrade, connecting the Yukon grid to British Columbia’s has benefits but also very high costs. As discussed in a prior column, a rough estimate for it might be in the $3-billion range.
If such a project is competing with the Arctic Security Corridor to Grays Bay or a major new icebreaker and port investment in the Eastern Arctic, how will it fare when Ottawa’s cost/benefit analysts look at it?
Air traffic control for the federal money plane might tell us to put up with our diesel generators for a few more years, or to wait for one of Canada’s new small nuclear reactors.
It may be that the Yukon’s biggest contribution to the strategic resilience of Canada and its allies is even more indirect than dual-use infrastructure: critical minerals. According to Canadian Press reports out of the NATO summit this week, critical mineral investments may also count towards the 1.5 per cent target.
Yukon government maps show we have dozens of drilled prospects for copper, molybdenum, nickel, tin, tungsten, zinc and more. Another thing that looks smart in light of today’s troubles is the Yukon government’s investment to make sure Skagway’s new port facility can handle Yukon minerals.
Consider a few examples. Casino or a re-opened Minto would provide copper, a critical industrial and climate transition metal. Fireweed’s Mactung would provide tungsten for projectiles, defence and industrial equipment. Kudz ze Kayah would provide copper, lead and zinc. The list goes on.
Bill C-5 has five criteria for National Interest Projects: strengthen national security, create economic benefits, be likely to be successfully executed, advance Indigenous interest and contribute to clean growth.
Would the feds ever put, say, a large Yukon copper mine on their list? If so, what would they do to accelerate it? For example, C-5 makes important changes to streamline the federal Impact Assessment Act. This act governs projects in most of Canada outside the Yukon. I asked YESAB if it affected them, and they said C-5 “does not affect” YESAB or related Yukon legislation. Would territorial and First Nations decision makers ever agree to fast-track a large critical minerals mine here?
A realpolitik geo-strategist in Ottawa might even draw a connection between the BC-Yukon grid project and critical minerals. If the BC-Yukon grid connection powers a new wave of critical minerals mines, then it’s a project of national significance. If it just powers Whitehorse offices producing years of bureaucratic delays to such mines then, such a strategist might say, Canada should put its money into Inuvik and Grays Bay.
We are still early in the process for National Interest Projects. We have yet to see which Yukon projects get designated and how fast they get built.
Keith Halliday is a Yukon economist and the winner of the Canadian Community Newspaper Award for Outstanding Columnist. The audiobook version of his most recent book Moonshadows, a Yukon-noir thriller, has just been released.
